Brazil’s coffee industry is entering one of its most promising harvest seasons, as Conab, Brazil’s National Supply Agency, raises its 2025 coffee production forecast to 55.7 million bags. This marks a record high for a year that falls within the lower-yield phase of the biennial production cycle. The strong growth is largely attributed to the robust performance of robusta coffee varieties.
Robusta: The Key Driver Behind Rising Coffee Output
A significant portion of this increase comes from the productivity of robusta coffee, which is projected to grow by 28.3%, with an estimated output of around 18.7 million bags. Regions such as Espírito Santo, Bahia, and Rondônia are expected to contribute 13.1 million, 2.5 million, and 2.28 million bags respectively. Favorable weather conditions during crucial growth stages supported strong flowering and significantly boosted yields.
The Contrasting Decline of Arabica Production
In contrast to robusta, arabica coffee production is forecast to drop by 6.6%, reaching only about 37 million bags. The main reason is prolonged dry weather from April to September 2024 in Minas Gerais—the largest arabica-producing region—which severely impacted yields, bringing projections down to 25.65 million bags.
Brazil’s Coffee Export Performance in Q1 2025
Brazil recorded an impressive first quarter in 2025, with coffee export revenues reaching USD 4.1 billion, up 68.9% compared to the same period last year. This performance not only reflects higher production volumes but also benefits from strong international coffee prices, further solidifying Brazil’s status as one of the world’s leading coffee exporters.
Global Coffee Market Pressures and Outlook
Although the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects an increase in global coffee production, prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. However, upward pressure on prices may arise depending on international supply and demand dynamics. Indonesia—another major coffee producer—is facing the risk of becoming a net importer due to declining output, which could add strain to the global market.
Conclusion
Despite adverse weather conditions, Brazil continues to demonstrate sustainable growth, thanks to innovative practices and increasing technological adoption in agriculture. This production boost not only secures domestic supply but also enhances Brazil’s influence on the international coffee market.
